In this presentation, a data scientist and an experienced underwriter will take deep dives into cases drawn from a recent mortality study. Each case will be scored by a predictive model and clinically underwritten. In some cases, the underwriter and model will see eye to (virtual!) eye and get to the same place by different routes. Cases in which the model’s score and underwriting decision diverge will create an opportunity to explain the degree to which they can “show the work” behind the model’s score. This session will have an engaging element of audience participation, by inviting underwriters to vote their support for the model’s score or the underwriter’s opinion.
Michael Niemerg, FSA, MAAA, Director, Predictive Modeling, Milliman IntelliScriptRachel Eberle, Senior Risk Specialist, Munich Re
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